« Home | Abba Poemen (desert father) on practicing generosi... » | Iraqi Christians celebrate Easter in Baghdad neigh... » | "We got to do something with these young people...... » | Interview with Vandana Shiva » | I did get something done... » | Delays, delays... » | Culture of the Land: A Series on New Agrarianism » | Waterless urinals: not just for Duke Divinity anym... » | The Inflection/Disruption Consumption » | Meet the new boss, same as the old boss... »

"The old fields are dying...save, save, save"

In current discussions about energy use, of which the great majority of Americans remain ignorant, the pessimists of peak oil theory are arguing that oil production may have already peaked (2005 and 2008 are the two years most frequently identified) or will peak shortly (2010, 2012). On the other end, most energy analysts and corporations insist that oil production will continue to rise and will meet demand long enough to enable a steady transition to a post-hydrocarbon, renewable energy future. However, estimates concerning that future have been revised downward recently by typically optimistic groups such as the International Energy Agency and Cambridge Energy Research Associates. See, for example, George Monbiot's report in the Guardian about the difference between the IEA 2007 and 2008 reports as well as IEA economist Fatih Birol's expectation of a plateau in oil production around 2020.

Somewhere in the middle between the optimists and pessimists has been the French oil company Total. CEO Christophe de Marguerite has stated that he believes oil production will never rise above approximately 90 million barrels per day. To put that in perspective, the most recent peak in July of last year was close to 87 mb/d, and after production cuts the current rate is 83. The German magazine Der Spiegel posted an interview yesterday with Michel Mallet, the manager of Total's German operations. While Mallet expects a higher peak figure than Marguerite, he does think that the cheap, accessible oil has already been found and that intensive conservation needs to begin now. Some snippets from the interview:

Mallet: There are hardly any readily accessible oil fields anymore. The fields on the floor of the North Sea, for example, are practically empty. New reserves are only being found deep in the ocean, in remote regions like Kazakhstan or in the form of oil sands. None of this is cheap to produce.

[...]

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is it even possible to increase oil production anymore?

Mallet: About 87 million barrels a day are produced worldwide. In the past, it was believed that this number could be increased to 130 million. I consider that an illusion. Realistically, the capacity is less than 105 million barrels.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: It sounds like the peak oil theory, which isn't very popular among your competitors. It holds that maximum production will be reached soon.

Mallet: The old oil fields are dying. In the future, we will have to invest more and more just to maintain existing production.

[...]

SPIEGEL ONLINE: So how much longer will the oil last?

Mallet: We won't have any problems for the next 20 years. If we handle demand responsibly, it could even last another 40 or 50 years.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: But what if demand increases, particularly in Asia?

Mallet: That's why we have a clear message: We have to save, save, save.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Total is the only oil company that is predicting stagnating production. Are the others ignoring the truth?

Mallet: I don't know. But I do know that anyone who encourages people to buy big cars to increase his oil sales is making a big mistake. I myself walk to work.


Labels:

Posted by Chris Schelin on Wednesday, April 15, 2009 at Wednesday, April 15, 2009 |

Post a Comment